IMF Publishes Forecast

TL;DR

Serbia's GDP growth is projected to reach 4% by 2027.
Growth drivers include real income increase, manufacturing exports, agricultural recovery, infrastructure and energy investments, and tourism.
The Middle East conflict poses a negative risk to global economic growth and inflation.
Serbia maintains cautious and predictable macroeconomic policy, supported by significant reserves and a stable banking system.
Inflation is projected at 3.5% in 2026, influenced by temporary fuel excise tax reductions and the removal of margin caps on food prices.
Serbia is committed to limiting its fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP in 2026-2027 and implementing fiscal rules for public sector wages and pensions.
The IMF advises the eventual removal of temporary fuel excise tax reductions to ensure fiscal sustainability.
Strong fiscal buffers, including moderate public debt and high foreign exchange reserves, enhance Serbia's resilience to shocks.
The IMF recommends reforms to improve the business environment, boost productivity, and increase potential growth.
Global conflicts cause significant and long-lasting economic losses, with spillover effects on other countries.
Economic recovery post-conflict is slow and uneven, heavily reliant on sustained peace and international support.
Global defense spending is increasing due to geopolitical tensions, with varying economic multipliers depending on spending specifics.

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