If you ask an unknown passerby in Bosnia today whether they support the Palestinians and Persians or the Israelis and Americans, you will also find out their nationality. Donald Trump and J.D. Vance say that 'the US is waging a war to protect Christians.' And from whom else but Muslims?! In the first days of the attacks on Iran, Mufti Yusufspahić stated in a conversation on a Belgrade TV channel: 'This is a war against Muslims.' The corresponding religious-national division and antagonism in Bosnia have existed since the Ottoman occupation, but already during the civil war of 1992-1995, everything unfolded according to Huntington's prediction that after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of ideological conflicts, there would not be 'one world,' 'a world of peace,' 'the end of history,' but rather – a clash of civilizations, i.e., religions. This visionary American geopolitician wrote his famous work at a time when the 'Bosnian War' had already begun, and it remains unclear whether it was an illustration or inspiration for him. Be that as it may, Bosnia became the world, or the world became Bosnia.
However, theoretical anticipation is one thing, and political life is another, in which not everything on paper is schematically rounded, pure, and clear. Only the USA, which aggressively took the anti-Serb side of the Bosnian Muslims, later Bosniaks, did not fit into his generally accurate thesis that the warring parties in BiH would be aided by co-religionist peoples in the nearer and wider environment. His attempts to explain this exception ('Manichean view of the world,' 'ethics of helping the weaker,' etc.) remained unconvincing. But now life has corrected America's deviation from Huntington's scheme. At the beginning of the conversation with Cvijanović, Landau said that 'the USA was unjust towards the Serbs and wants to correct that.' In essence, Dodik not only liked Trump's pre-election statements that he would 'agree with Putin on Ukraine in a month' and that 'the USA will no longer interfere in the internal affairs of other countries,' so he rooted for him when no one else did, including most American voters, but he also fit into Huntington's geopolitical vision. At the same time, global geopolitical processes have subsequently complicated this vision in BiH. There will be Islamic terrorism, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia.
Dodika's Srpska has long openly, clearly, loudly, and consistently sided with Israel, even when America publicly did not. In short, Serbs and Jews are connected by suffering in Jasenovac, as well as troubles with Muslim neighbors, and there, on the same side, are the USA, more obviously than ever. Bosniaks, on the other hand, are torn between the political elite, who were recommended 'equal dialogue with the other two peoples on real and practical solutions' from Washington, and the national-religious base, which demands solidarity with their Muslim brothers who are rocketing each other, right under their windows, and the pre-election campaign is about to begin. Croats claimed to be of Persian origin to prove they were not converted Serbs, but Croatia, as a European country, doesn't know where to stand between Washington and Brussels, so it plays it safe. Plenković organizes Thompson's concerts and sings 'Za dom spremni' because it always appeals to Ustasha-minded voters, and recommends them to traditional ally Germany, while Germany sponsors anti-Serb military cooperation between Zagreb, Tirana, and Pristina. Milanović wins in direct elections because there are quite a few who prefer him.
Serb's position in BiH, at least for now, seems the most comfortable: good with Israel, with the USA, with Russia, on the path to the EU, but... Our Serb brothers, the Russians, and our iron friends, the Chinese, have stood behind Iran, a key geopolitical point in the competition between BRICS and the West. However, it is remembered that in 1993, mujahideen from dozens of Islamic countries arrived in war-torn BiH to help their Muslim brothers, coming precisely from Tehran, and near Vozuća, they literally slaughtered captured VRS soldiers in front of the cameras, and recently in Sarajevo, a Pasdaran general was discussing military cooperation with the BiH Minister of Defense, Zukan Helez, behind Banja Luka's back. How can Serbs be with them, and how again, beyond Slavic brotherhood and steel friends who recently supplied the motherland with supersonic anti-aircraft defense?
The last Israeli-Palestinian war began with Hamas rocketing targets within the Jewish state and, for the first time, piercing the 'impenetrable anti-aircraft defense dome,' invading Israeli territory, taking hostages, and leading them into the endless labyrinth of underground tunnels in Gaza, but no one remained indifferent to the brutal retaliation of leveling Palestinian territories. Since the establishment of the Islamic state of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini has spoken of a Zionist conspiracy and American Satan, threatened Israel with destruction, and processed uranium. Pro-Iranian Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel from Lebanon, but the victims in the Girls' School evoke strong empathy in everyone. Nevertheless, allies and sympathizers of one of the two sides will only emphasize that Hamas and Hezbollah started the conflicts, i.e., the destruction of Gaza and the death of 171 children.
And again, one but... Dodik rooted for Trump back in his first election campaign, when no one else did, and he remained consistent in that even when Trump lost the battle for a second term. Trump reciprocated when he became president again. But what about the Russian protectors in the meantime?
A favorable circumstance for Dodik was also that at that moment, Trump, according to a long-declared plan, was wholeheartedly pursuing an agreement with Putin on Ukraine, bypassing the EU, so the biggest stars of the planetary political galaxy temporarily aligned in the sky above Bosnia for the Serbs. Mother Russia, Slavic and Orthodox, where Dodik was warmly welcomed (Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu, Miller), more than any other friend, did the most she could realistically do on the diplomatic and political level, and Dodik deserved it with his consistent loyalty. At the initiative and under the chairmanship of the Russian Federation, a UN Security Council session was held, to which the 'High Representative' Schmidt was not even invited. Vasily Nebenzya criticized him as never before, his American colleague agreed, not explicitly but implicitly, and the self-proclaimed governor, the Schwab Christian, was defended only by the Briton.
This may have been a turning point whose scenario had to be previously agreed upon on the Moscow-Washington line, and Dodik's friend Orban, a political magician who sits in both the EU and NATO, Trump's favorite in Europe, enjoys Putin's favor because he does not act against Russia, also played his role. Finally, although most, and indeed the strongest countries in the EU, have been working against him politically, Dodik is not giving up on the European path. And the EU and NATO not only have their headquarters in the same city but, after the Americans distanced themselves, NATO is becoming a European affair, and the EU is evolving into a military-political organization, introducing majority decision-making, admitting new members without voting rights, and the militant woman Kaya, in charge of foreign policy and security, has surpassed her presumed superior Ursula in Russophobia. Neither Putin nor Trump will deal with them, but this association, losing in all respects, is not harmless when it comes to the smaller and weaker ones in the Balkan backyard.
Despite all predictions that he would leave by New Year, Schmidt is still sitting in Sarajevo and playing dead; the Bonn powers have not been revoked, and the 5+2 conditions for the departure of foreigners have not been suspended. Germans, even when defeated in regular play, equalize in injury time and, if not in extra time, then in penalties, they win. There is Judge Sena writing letters to the Central Election Commission that her verdict means Mile cannot even be a party leader. They refuse her, and she tries again. Such persistence is not typical for a compromising Muslim woman, even if her father served in the SS Handzar Division. It could only have come from Schmidt, who is not giving up on the property of Srpska, nor on Dodik.
It was expected that while Trump was busy in the Middle East, Putin and Xi would finish with Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, and that the USA and Israel, having failed with the color revolution in Tehran, would soon have to stop and make an honorable withdrawal by declaring victory. But then something else unforeseen happened: Putin is not accelerating in Ukraine, nor is Xi in Taiwan, Trump is killing ayatollahs and sending commandos for uranium. But since the Iranians blocked the Strait of Hormuz and left the EU without oil, Kaja Kallas is swallowing her pride and temporarily lifting sanctions on much-needed Russian energy resources. And in Moscow, they are not saying 'nyet,' but rubbing their hands because they will sell huge quantities at record prices. The story repeats itself: first, 'everything will be clearer after the outcome in Ukraine,' then 'everything will be clearer when the EU collapses,' and now, 'everything will be clearer when the situation in the Middle East is resolved.' Yes, yes, it will, it will, but when? 'Things will get sorted, but I don't know when!' as Uncle Jova Zmaj says in his rhyme. And the Bosnian man, bewildered by the controversial information about who is with whom, when, and why, against whom or what in the asymmetric dealings of hybrid warfare, mutters to himself, 'Well, try to be smart and understand now.'
