economy
February 16, 2026
The Sad End of the Balloon Tiger Story
The tiger ran out of breath too quickly, but that's usually how it goes. If a balloon doesn't burst immediately after being inflated, it flies for a while, but a fall is inevitable. And it usually comes faster than those who based growth on just two pillars thought, not realizing that one cannot sit stably on a chair with two legs.
TL;DR
- Serbia's economic growth in the past year was only about 2%, the lowest since the pandemic, and lower than all regional competitors.
- Employment has decreased significantly, with half attributed to job losses and the other half to emigration.
- A global decline in foreign investment, falling to about 1% of world GDP, is a major factor, contrasting with 5% in 2007.
- Increased global instability and uncertainty, particularly due to political actions by the US, have significantly impacted investor confidence.
- The economic uncertainty index is at its highest in 40 years, significantly worsened by recent US policies.
- Projections for Serbia in the coming year show only a slight improvement in GDP growth (2.8%) and inflation reduction.
- The current economic model, based on state and foreign investment, is unstable, leading to frequent recessions.
- A shift to a new model emphasizing domestic investment and a comprehensive industrial policy is crucial for long-term stability and growth.
- While a change in government is predicted, a change in economic policy is essential for improving the lives of citizens.
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