economy
May 6, 2026
IMF after Mission in Serbia: Serbia's Strong Safeguards are a Solid Foundation for Facing Challenges
Serbia's strong safeguards - moderate public debt, high foreign exchange reserves, and a stable banking system - provide a solid foundation for facing repeated shocks, according to conclusions published today by the delegation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, which has concluded its visit to Serbia.
TL;DR
- Serbia's strong economic safeguards (moderate public debt, high foreign exchange reserves, stable banking system) are a solid foundation for facing shocks.
- The IMF mission and Serbian authorities reached an agreement on the third review of the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).
- The war in the Middle East poses challenges through energy prices and increased uncertainty, impacting investments and consumption.
- Economic growth is projected at 2.75% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, supported by real income growth, manufacturing exports, agricultural recovery, infrastructure and energy investments, and Expo 2027 related tourism.
- Serbia is advancing in fiscal-structural reforms, including pension system analysis and a report on tax expenditures.
- The IMF supports the Serbian Tax Administration in addressing staffing, digitalization, and VAT collection.
- Technical assistance is provided to improve public investment management.
- Serbia is committed to limiting the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP in 2026-2027 and implementing fiscal rules for public sector wages and pensions.
- Recommendations include the removal of fuel excise tax cuts to maintain fiscal sustainability.
- Uncertainty remains high due to potential escalation of the Middle East conflict and further energy market disruptions.
- Maintaining prudent and predictable macroeconomic policy is crucial for credibility and risk mitigation.