“Big upheavals expected in the coming days”: Political scientist on Schmidt’s dismissal and his successor
Jasmin Mujanović, a political scientist and specialist in Southeast European politics and international relations with a doctorate from York University in Toronto, commented on the departure of Christian Schmidt from the position of High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
TL;DR
- Christian Schmidt's departure as High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina is attributed to US pressure and a deal with secessionist authorities in Banja Luka, with Moscow's approval.
- The US is pushing for Antonio Zanardi Landi as Schmidt's successor, linking his nomination to US energy interests, specifically the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline (SIC) project.
- This US-led initiative appears to be part of a broader strategy to increase US LNG supply in Europe and strengthen commercial ties, potentially benefiting companies connected to the Trump administration.
- The deal involves lifting sanctions on Milorad Dodik in exchange for his cooperation, including removing political blockades on the SIC project.
- The primary task for the next High Representative will be to facilitate the passage of a new state property law, enabling SIC construction and potentially leading to the closure of the OHR.
- European nations view this US activity in Bosnia as an anti-EU move, but lack a unified strategy to counter it.
- The situation represents a significant divergence in US and EU policy towards Bosnia since 1995.
- Upcoming developments, potentially influenced by the UN Security Council session, are expected to reveal the extent of the transatlantic rift in the country.