economy
December 27, 2025
Analiza CEVES-a: Protesti nisu uzrok ekonomskog usporavanja rasta u 2025. godini, već državni model koji je udario u zid
Usporavanje privrednog rasta Srbije u 2025. godini nije posledica studentskih protesta, već znak da je dosadašnji ekonomski model iscrpljen, ocenili su ekonomisti Centra za visoke ekonomske studije (CEVES) u novoj analizi.
TL;DR
- Serbia's economic growth in 2025 is slowing not because of protests, but due to an exhausted economic model, according to CEVES economists.
- The previous economic model relied on export-driven growth fueled by FDI attracted through low labor and energy costs, large infrastructure projects, and a fixed nominal exchange rate.
- Key issues contributing to the slowdown include declining foreign direct investment (FDI), a shift in FDI composition away from manufacturing, slowing domestic SME exports, and an appreciating real effective exchange rate.
- CEVES economists challenge the narrative that protests are the primary cause of declining FDI, stating that deeper structural issues within the economic model are at play.
- The article highlights that Serbia's approach favored attracting foreign investment over supporting domestic small and medium-sized enterprises, with a significant disparity in resource allocation.
- A policy shift in 2013, removing tax credits for reinvested profits for smaller companies while retaining them for large investments, is cited as detrimental to domestic businesses.
- Despite a low unemployment rate, companies struggle to find adequate labor, indicating a mismatch in the workforce, while labor costs rise and revenues stagnate in manufacturing.
- The trend of companies leaving Serbia is expected to continue, with significant job losses anticipated in 2024 and 2025.
- While protests may not be the root cause of the 2025 slowdown, political instability is seen as a negative factor for future growth in 2026.
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