economy
March 3, 2026
Black Scenario: War in Iran Deepens, Oil Prices Jump Over $100 Per Barrel, New Inflation Wave Arrives
The escalation of conflict between Israel and the US on one side, and Iran on the other, has opened a key issue for global energy: the security of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil consumption passes. After attacks on tankers and traffic disruptions through the strait, Brent oil prices rose by about 10%, and experts warn that a deepening of the crisis could lead to oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel and trigger a new inflationary wave.
TL;DR
- Escalation between Israel/US and Iran has jeopardized the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for 20% of global oil transit.
- Brent crude prices increased by 10%, exceeding $82 per barrel, with forecasts of over $100 if conflict persists.
- A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause severe supply chain disruptions and a new inflationary wave.
- OPEC+ plans to increase production by 206,000 barrels daily from April, but this may not compensate for the strait's closure.
- Alternative routes exist but have significantly lower transport capacities, making them insufficient.
- Experts note psychological market effects, speculative trading, and uncertain conflict duration.
- Some countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq have alternative export routes, while others in the Persian Gulf face economic threats.
- The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could increase shipping costs substantially due to longer routes.
- While immediate shortages for Serbia and the region are unlikely due to existing oil reserves and alternative sources, global instability could lead to recession.
- China's interest in low oil prices might influence de-escalation efforts, but a significant conflict escalation remains a possibility for higher prices and inflation.
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