economy
February 7, 2026
Refinery Shutdown 'Ate Up' Most of the Planned GDP Growth
According to the early estimate of the Statistical Office of the Republic, the real year-on-year growth of Serbia's gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter of 2025 was 2.2 percent. For the entire past year, this corresponds to an average real growth of about two percent. Based on available high-frequency indicators, it is estimated that, from the production side, the key drivers of last year's economic growth were the services sector and net taxes. Industry contributed less than 0.2 percent to GDP growth. On the other hand, the largest negative contribution came from construction (minus 0.3 percent), while moderate growth in added value was recorded in the trade sector and in the areas of transport and IT compared to 2024.
TL;DR
- Serbia's real GDP growth was 2.2% in Q4 2025, averaging 2% for the full year.
- Key growth drivers were services and net taxes; industry contributed less than 0.2%.
- Construction had a negative impact (-0.3%), while trade, transport, and IT saw moderate growth.
- The Pančevo refinery's production halt significantly reduced planned growth.
- US sanctions on "Linglong" tires mid-December 2025 also impacted industrial output.
- The automotive sector is seen as a major driver for manufacturing and exports.
- Foreign trade value increased by 7.7% to nearly 75 billion euros; exports grew faster than imports.
- The budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP in 2025.
- Serbia and Bulgaria recorded the highest year-on-year real retail trade growth in Europe in December 2025.
- The situation with NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije) is a short-term risk, with MOL Group expected to take over a significant stake.
- Inflation ended the year within the NBS target, at 2.7% year-on-year, driven by lower food prices.
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