economy
March 4, 2026
Savić: The Middle East conflict will have consequences for Serbia's economy
Professor of the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, Ljubodrag Savić, stated today that the conflict in the Middle East could have more significant economic consequences than those during the 2008 global economic crisis, and that rising oil and gas prices lead to price increases in all sectors.
TL;DR
- The Middle East conflict may have more significant economic consequences than the 2008 global economic crisis.
- Rising oil and gas prices will lead to price increases in all sectors, affecting Serbia's fuel costs.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while currently manageable due to global reserves, could cause global problems if the crisis persists.
- Global disunity and conflicting interests make the current situation more dangerous than in 2008.
- Inflationary shocks are expected due to the price spiral, but not overnight.
- Energy shortages are a major concern, representing the 'worst-case scenario'.
- Russia could strengthen its position, especially in the European energy market.
- The US is in a favorable position as a net oil exporter, with oil trade in dollars giving it an advantage.
- Europe is most exposed to risk, facing higher gas prices and more expensive alternative supply routes.
- Serbia will inevitably feel the consequences, with potential fuel price increases.
- Government responses like adjusting excise taxes and VAT could impact subsidies and aid to the economy.
- Products and services dependent on energy will likely see price hikes.
- Potential increases in interest rates could lead to higher loan installments for citizens.
- Aviation, industry, insurance companies, and foreign companies operating in Serbia could also be affected.
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