economy
January 22, 2026
Највећи ризици за економски раст
План „Нове Газе“ Директорка Међународног монетарног фонда (ММФ) Кристалина Георгијева данас је поручила да се свет суочава са озбиљним проблемом високог јавног дуга, док су геополитички ризици, растући трошкови зад уживања и политичка нестабилност постали кључни изазови за глобални економски раст.
TL;DR
- Global economy faces challenges from high public debt, geopolitical risks, and rising borrowing costs.
- Fiscal austerity measures can be politically costly, but successful examples exist (Latvia).
- Argentina's drastic fiscal consolidation was justified due to prolonged fiscal mismanagement and inflation.
- A gradual approach to deficit and debt reduction is suitable for most countries, with a clear plan.
- Italy is a positive European example, expected to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of GDP.
- Strong fiscal policy implementation can lead to lower borrowing costs, as seen in Italy.
- A minimum tax revenue threshold of 15% of GDP is necessary for state functioning.
- Developing countries need to broaden their tax base, while developed economies must control spending.
- Global growth is projected at 3.3% for this year and 3.2% for 2026.
- The US is projected to grow by 2.4%, with potential for better results.
- Artificial intelligence could boost global growth by 0.1-0.8 percentage points.
- AI is expected to impact 40% of global jobs (60% in developed economies).
- AI's transformation of the labor market is compared to a 'tsunami'.
- Strong institutions, balanced budgets, and fiscal reserves are crucial for future shocks.
- AI is automating jobs, particularly affecting young and new labor market participants.
- Increased highly skilled workers can lead to higher wages and increased demand for low-skilled jobs.
- Workers with static skills are under pressure in terms of employment and wages.
- Governments must focus on upskilling, reskilling, and creating new opportunities to navigate the AI transformation.
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