economy
January 11, 2026
Da li će Nemačka konačno da izađe iz ekonomske krize?
Posle više godina stagnacije i pada, nemačka privreda ulazi u 2026. sa velikim očekivanjima, ali i sve slabijim optimizmom među ekonomistima. Iako se i dalje računa na povratak rasta, prognoze pokazuju da će on biti sporiji i slabiji nego što se ranije verovalo.
TL;DR
- German economy expected to return to growth in 2026, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
- Economic forecasts for 2026 show modest growth, with the Bundesbank predicting 0.6% and ifo institute expecting 0.8%.
- Structural changes, high energy transition costs, trade disputes with the US, and competition from China are challenging the export-oriented German model.
- Underlying issues include deindustrialization, underinvestment, poor infrastructure, and lagging digitalization.
- A new government plans significant investments in defense and infrastructure, altering borrowing rules to facilitate this.
- Skepticism exists regarding the allocation of investment funds, with concerns they may be used for pensions and social benefits instead of productive investments.
- The effectiveness and long-term impact of fiscal stimulus are debated, with some predicting only a short-term boost.
- Germany's economic performance is seen as crucial for the broader European economic recovery.
- Business sentiment surveys do not indicate a rapid turnaround, with mixed expectations for production and sales in early 2026.
- An increase in working days in 2026 could contribute marginally to GDP growth.
- Public debt is projected to increase significantly by 2035, with substantial new borrowing and budget deficits expected in 2026.
- Rising costs for pensions and interest payments will further constrain fiscal space.
- The key question for Germany's future economic trajectory is whether planned state spending will stimulate the economy or merely postpone necessary reforms.
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