economy
January 1, 2026
INTERVJU Za Rafale više nego za investicije u zdravstvu, isplativost ulaganja u EKSPO upitna
Budžet za 2026. godinu je kredibilan, ali, kao i prethodni, pati od boljke zvane netransparentnost, kaže Blagoje Paunović, predsednik Fiskalnog saveta, u intervjuu za Danas.
TL;DR
- The 2026 budget is considered credible regarding fiscal deficit, but lacks transparency.
- Public debt is expected to increase to 43.9 billion euros, or 46.4% of GDP, by the end of 2026.
- Financing costs for public debt are high, with average interest rates significantly higher than in neighboring countries and the EU.
- Key criticisms include insufficient explanations for reduced spending on oil reserves and subsidies, and increased costs for projects like the Fruškogorski Corridor and National Stadium.
- Capital investments are projected to decrease as a percentage of GDP, with a notable increase only in defense spending (Rafale aircraft purchase).
- Investments in EXPO and related infrastructure remain largely unchanged.
- Public investments in transport infrastructure are declining, with the exception of the metro.
- Public defense investments do not have a significant multiplier effect on the economy, and the economic viability of EXPO is questionable.
- Cost-benefit analyses for public investments, like the metro, are crucial but often bypassed, leading to project cost overruns and delays.
- Bilateral agreements can circumvent requirements for technical documentation and proper fund usage, contributing to cost increases.
- The possibility of discretionary public spending increases, especially before elections, is a concern, though adherence to MMF agreements might mitigate this.
- Disruptions in fuel supply could have severe negative fiscal and economic consequences.
- The Fiscal Council desires greater acceptance of its recommendations by lawmakers and policymakers.
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